Arundel Tories Select Right Herbert
So Howard Flight has flown and the Tories in Arundel and South Downs have selected a new candidate. From the shortlist of three, they rejected the two woman and picked Nick Herbert, the director of “thinktank” (and we use the term loosely) Reform. Despite suggestions that Central Office were keen to use this safe seat to increase the representation of women in the party at Westminster, it seems unlikely they will complain.
But what’s this? Someone’s been on LexisNexis already…
Mr Herbert, who is generally well thought of within the Conservative party, said he was delighted to be selected and was “absolutely supportive of the party’s policy” on tax and spending.
But in an article published in The Spectator in 2002 he criticised Mr. Howard, then the shadow chancellor, for saying the needs of public services came before tax cuts.
He added: “The whisper is that there is a top secret, extremely clever strategy afoot: go along with spending rises now, but return to a tax-cutting agenda when – if – the party is re-elected. So the repositioning of the Tories is to be based on a lie.”
We look forward to future reports of other articles by Mr Herbert and wish him well for the campaign and his impending safe Commons seat for life (or until his leader disbars him on a whim).
TIMES: Tories’ Best Issues Fail to Connect with Voters
NO WONDER the Tories talk repeatedly about immigration and tax. These are about the only issues going for them.
The latest Populus poll for The Times explains much of the gloom among Conservative spokesmen and MPs. Of course, shares of the vote will not be the same on polling day. But the rationalisations of Liam Fox about why it will be all right on the night (polls overstating Labour support and the unwinding of tactical voting) do not nearly bridge the gap.
The latest trends are worrying for the Tories. It is not just that their support has not climbed from its (very) longstanding plateau, and has, if anything, slipped by two to three points since last summer. Labour support has also been rising since then, to its highest since the Iraq war in spring 2003.
Equally importantly, the Tories are not making headway on what the public regards as the most important issues facing Britain. Labour is not only ahead on ten out of the twelve issues, but has improved its position on all nine where comparable questions were asked last May.
By far the best Tory issue is immigration and asylum, where the party is 8 percentage points ahead of Labour (at 36 per cent to 28). But the gap was 13 points nine months ago. And the poll was taken over the weekend, after the publication of Tory plans to tighten up on immigration, but largely before Labour’s proposals began to emerge. Moreover, immigration has slipped down the public’s ranking of issues, mentioned by 28, as against 37 per cent. It is a core Tory issue, mentioned by 42 per cent of the party’s supporters, ranking second equal to crime in their list of importance.
The Tories are also just ahead on tax, but their lead has narrowed from plus eight to plus one since May. This is despite several warnings that taxes would rise in a third Blair term, and the poll’s evidence of rising public concern about the issue. This could potentially become a stronger Tory card.
Public worries over crime are rising, up 11 percentage points to 45 per cent in the past nine months, with an even sharper increase among swing or floating voters. Yet, Labour has managed a 6-point turnround to gain a small lead.
The poll has a mixed message for Labour. The main public services, particularly health, are still at or near the top of the list. But they have all declined in importance since May. This may reflect an increase in satisfaction with the NHS. So, while Labour’s lead over the Tories on the NHS has risen, the issue may be less important in determining votes.
Similarly, Labour has a 15-point lead on interest rates, despite last year’s increases, but the issue matters only to 6 per cent of voters.
If you wonder why the Government has not done more about transport, the simple answer is that not enough people care. It comes in twelfth, regarded as important by a mere 9 per cent of voters, just behind Europe. Labour is well ahead of the Tories and has increased its lead. There are no real electoral pressures, outside the London area, to spend the necessary money to improve transport.
The Tories have not yet begun to scale the electoral mountain facing them.
Tory Chief Sacked By Fax
This story originally from This Is Southampton, is no longer on their web site:
CONSERVATIVE party bosses have sacked one of their most senior Hampshire officials in a row that threatens to leave their general election campaign in tatters.
For more than half a century Clifford Combes, picture above, has served the Conservative Party through thick and thin.
In return he has suffered the ultimate humiliation of being sacked as chairman of the Southampton Itchen branch in a row over who should fight for the seat at the next general election.
Mr. Combes was called to a special meeting at which party bosses removed him from his role and informed him that Tory Central Office was taking control of the association’s affairs.
The move means that local Tories will no longer be able to select their own candidate to take on sitting Labour MP John Denham.
Bosses at the party’s London headquarters will now choose the candidate to fight the General Election, widely expected to be held in May.
City Conservatives fear their general election campaign is now in tatters.
Tory insiders say they are “furious” over the way that Mr. Combes was told about the decision.
And they say that the 160-strong membership of the local party will be “extremely reluctant” to pound the streets handing out leaflets and campaigning for a candidate who has been imposed on them from London.
One Itchen Tory insider, who did not want to be named, said: “Members will not go out of their way to help the candidate.
“We have not got anybody who would work to do that. They will have no workers delivering leaflets.”
The row comes after Tory Central office ruled that Conservative councillor Royston Smith could not contest the seat because he was ruled out of the party’s approved “list”.
Tory insiders suspect that when the official candidate is chosen he or she will fit the new “politically correct” agenda for modernisers in the Tory party.
Party bosses in London have recently tried to update the perceived “white middle class male” profile of the party by selecting candidates who are women, gay or from ethnic minorities.
Mr. Combes, who has been a member of the Conservative party for 56 years and chairman of the Southampton Itchen branch for the past two, was called to a special meeting in Romsey where he was officially informed of the decision to remove him from the chairmanship. He will still remain a member of the Conservative Party.
The Daily Echo understands that Mr. Combes, 86, was informed of Central Office’s decision by fax earlier this week.
He was called to a special meeting with Romsey Tory party deputy chairman (political) Tony Forward, who will effectively take over the running of the local party and its selection of the candidate to fight the Itchen seat.
Mr. Combes said: “It is very sad to have this sort of thing. They are almost fighting their own people.”
Itchen Conservatives deputy chairman Councillor Adrian Johnson said: “It is a great shame that it has come to this. It is a shame that the voluntary wing of the party is being treated this way.”
Councillor Smith ruled out standing in the Itchen seat as an Independent Conservative candidate.
He said: “The election of a Parliamentary candidate is a matter for the local association and the Conservative party and I will continue to work to achieve a Conservative government and to ensure Michael Howard becomes the next Conservative Prime Minister.”
A Conservative party spokesman said: “We have a very strict rule that only people who are on the approved list of candidates can be considered for a seat.”
Tory Leader Quashes Mini-Rebellion
Norfolk County Council leader Alison King has seen off a vote of no confidence in her leadership from fellow Tories.
But after quashing the mini-rebellion she was last night told to “raise her game” as the party seeks to retain control of county hall in May.
Mrs. King resoundingly faced down her critics during a group meeting in Dereham on Friday, though the party is desperate to stop details of what happened spilling out in public.
The EDP understands the move followed a row about a raft of bad news stories to hit the Conservative administration – from the failure to plug overspends in social services to the collapse of the £92m deal to refurbish 37 Norfolk schools.
Tempers have been fraying among some backbenchers and two days before the vote Mrs King was visited by a three-man delegation of senior Tories -Dereham East councillor Cliff Jordan, Docking councillor Stephen Bett, and former county council leader John Alston bringing messages of disquiet from among the rank and file.
Mr. Jordan, who as leader of Breckland District Council cannot be a member of the County Council Cabinet, denied he was after the leader’s job but said he was approached to relay the concerns of others because of his reputation as a plain speaker.
“It’s about issues some of them are unhappy about, it’s no big deal,” he said. “It’s what I call gripes. If nobody tells her, how does she know?
“It’s not the first time and I don’t suppose it will be the last.”
Like Mr. Bett, he was not at the meeting during which the vote took place, but he insisted he was not a standard bearer for opponents of Mrs. King.
“They see me as a leader because I lead an authority, I think that speaks for itself,” he added. “I don’t think there is anything else to it.
“Alison knows she has to raise her game and I think she will. If you are not told, you do not know. I think she has been told and now it’s up to her.”
Mrs. King enjoys a national profile and is seen as a moderate voice in the party. But it is not the first challenge to her control of her group.
Last year she saw off complaints about her leadership style but was forced to sacrifice her loyal deputy Derek Turnbull.
And when the schools PFI deal fell apart David Hills, deputy chairman of South-West Norfolk Conservative association, publicly urged her to quit while South Norfolk MP Richard Bacon said the council needed a “jolly good kick up the backside”.
At recent Cabinet meetings Mrs King has hit out at social services’ chiefs about the failure to reign in spending, but the recent vote fuels speculation that she has been talking tough to see off critics on her own side.
Stephen Bett said he was asked along as a neutral observer, while Mr Alston talked about how he handled troublesome backbenchers when he was leader.
Mr. Bett said the main problem was the Cabinet system that concentrated power in a small number of hands with a large number of members feeling left out.
“It was not a challenge as such, but people showing they weren’t happy,” he said. “She has the support of the group and she will go forward.”
Mrs. King, refused to discuss the issue yesterday and said it was a “private party matter”.
Privately her supporters are furious that some rebels are getting at the leader to settle old scores.
But one Tory councillor, who did not want to be named, said rebels were desperate to get their leader out before next year’s election.
“She has failed to deliver things like PFI and the huge lack of performance in social services. She was totally out of touch and she doesn’t really care what other people in the group do, to be honest. It’s a very unhappy situation.”
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Tories tumbled to three council by-election defeats this week with gains for both Labour and Liberal Democrats.
Although Conservatives fared better in analysis of the overall voting figures, the results are still a blow for party leader Michael Howard as he struggles to land punches on the Government in the week of the Queen’s Speech, opening what is likely to be Parliament’s last session before the General Election.
Labour’s Trevor Crumpton scored a landslide victory to take an Old Warley seat off Tories at Sandwell Borough, West Midlands. The far right British National Party – which returned one councillor on the authority last June – was contained at 16%.
There was a second triumph for the party as candidate Jane Murphy gained at Salford Borough’s Eccles ward with Liberal Democrats finishing third behind Conservatives.
But Labour lost to Independent Eric Wood at Cumbria’s Old Barrow division. Turnout slumped to below 14%.
Liberal Democrats more than compensated for their loss by taking two seats off Tories and one previously held by an independent.
Their candidate Malcolm Armstrong won from Conservatives at Winnersh, Wokingham District, Berkshire in the constituency of shadow cabinet member John Redwood.
Party colleague John Williams took South Cambridgeshire District’s Duxford seat by just 18 votes.
The third Liberal Democrat triumph came at Abbey ward, Romsey, at Hampshire’s Test Valley Borough when Sally Lamb snapped up an independent vacancy.
Analysis of 19 comparable results this month gives Tories a projected 4% nationwide lead compared with a 0.3% Labour margin last month.
A calculation based on 16 contests where all three major parties stood both times gives a line-up of C 38.1%, Lab 33.9%, Lib Dem 22.9%. These figures have been adjusted to take account of differences between parties’ relative council and General Election performances, show by analysis for the BBC, when both were on the same day in June 2001.